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Prime Minister Mark Carney Secures Minority Government for Liberals
The past 24 hours have reaffirmed two fundamental truths: elections matter and the only poll that counts is election day. This election will be remembered not only for its dramatic turnaround but also for signaling a deeper transformation in Canada’s political landscape.
Canadians sometimes joke about their elections being about everything and nothing, but this election had well-defined issues. If you were Conservative-minded, this was an election about change, and getting beyond the legacy of Justin Trudeau. If you weren’t Conservative, the election was about Donald Trump and maintaining Canadian sovereignty. If a Canadian’s vote shifted this time around, it was because of how they prioritized those issues changed.
In just three months, running with the wind blown by Donald Trump, the Liberals overcame a staggering 23-point gap in voting intentions to secure a narrow two-point lead on election day. While Conservative support remained relatively stable—finishing with 41% of the popular vote compared to 44% three months prior—the Liberal resurgence came largely at the expense of the NDP, which suffered its lowest-ever share of the popular vote at 6.3%.
This election shows how voting patterns might shift should Canada start to move toward a two-party system, particularly outside Quebec. The 2025 campaign was among the most polarized in recent memory, with the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a battle that left little room for other parties. The NDP’s collapse and the Bloc Québécois’s retreat to its traditional base highlight a political environment increasingly defined by binary choices.
This dynamic is also characterized by an intensifying urban-rural divide, a shift that we are witnessing across the Western world, with Liberals consolidating power in metropolitan centres such as Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, while Conservatives dominated rural and resource-rich regions. This geographic polarization reflects broader ideological rifts and poses challenges for national cohesion.
Key Liberal Election Commitments
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party campaigned on four planks: unite, secure, protect, and build. Going forward, the Liberals will aim to put some key campaign platforms of interest to CPWA members into reality, including:
- Cut municipal development charges in half for multi-unit residential housing for five years by working with provinces and territories to keep municipalities whole. These revenues will be offset by federal investment in housing infrastructure like water, power lines, and wastewater systems.
- Reintroduce a tax incentive for home builders known as the Multi-Unit Rental Building (MURB) which, in the 1970s, spurred tens of thousands of rental housing units across the country.
- Speed up approvals by reforming and simplifying national building codes; eliminating duplicative inspections and streamlining regulations for prefabricated and modular housing; leveraging pre-approved, standardized housing designs across all public lands and encouraging the adoption of the designs as-of-right across the country; allowing builders and other orders of government to apply for multiple projects at once; and fast tracking builders who have a proven record with government.
- Build federal homes in ways that reduce the risk of costly damages. To protect homeowners and renters from costly flood and wildfire risks, federally supported housing will not be built in areas that are at high risk for floods and wildfires.
- Act as a developer to build affordable housing at scale, including on public lands.
- Fund home retrofits and lower utility bills while making it easier for low- and middle-income households, including renters, to adopt heat pumps and energy efficiency upgrades.
- Lower household risks to floods and wildfires, directly helping Canadian families to protect against floods, wildfires, and other extreme weather events.
- Stand up Canada’s high-risk flood insurance program by April 2026 to support homeowners in reducing their exposure to future climate risk.
- Create a Trade Diversification Corridor Fund and fast-track projects of national interest.
- Create First and Last Mile Fund for a more integrated and accessible economy.
- Build out an East-West electricity grid.
- Provide an apprenticeship grant of up to $8,000 for registered apprentices.
A Deep Dive into the Election and What Comes Next
Known knowns—You can observe a lot just by watching
While major networks projected a Liberal victory shortly after 10 p.m. Eastern Time on election night, it wasn’t until the following day that it was confirmed the Liberals would form a minority government. The final seat count remains pending, subject to potential recounts, but current projections indicate the Liberals securing 169 seats—just three short of a majority in the new 343-seat House of Commons.
Voter turnout was robust, with Elections Canada reporting that 19.2 million Canadians cast ballots, resulting in a 68.6% turnout rate—a 6.4% increase from the 2021 federal election. Advance polls saw unprecedented participation, with 7.3 million voters—a 25% increase from the previous election.
Pre-election polls accurately gauged national voting intentions within their margins of error. However, seat projections, which have depended on the typical Canadian three-party contests as an assumption, were thrown off by the number of two-party contests, leading to unexpected outcomes in several ridings, and a minority government for the Liberals where the polls were calling for a weak to strong majority government.
The Liberals achieved significant gains in Quebec, increasing their seat count from 33 to 44, largely at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, which saw its representation drop from 33 to 22 seats. In Ontario, the Liberals notably lost ground to the Conservatives in the suburbs of Toronto, the “905.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney has indicated plans to form his cabinet within two weeks, adhering to standard practice. Parliament is currently expected to reconvene on May 26, commencing with the election of the Speaker, followed by the Throne Speech outlining the government’s agenda.
Carney has committed to introducing legislation aimed at eliminating internal trade barriers by July 1, signaling an active spring session. Given their minority status, the Liberals will need to collaborate with other parties to advance their legislative priorities. The Bloc Québécois, despite electoral losses, has expressed a willingness to engage in a “partisan truce” to facilitate governance.
The Conservative Party put in an historic performance, securing 144 seats at the time of writing and 41% of the popular vote—their best result since 2011. Notably, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his long-held Carleton seat to Liberal newcomer Bruce Fanjoy, a significant political setback. In his post-election speech, before it was clear that he had lost his seat, Poilievre made it clear that he intends to stay as party leader.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) suffered a substantial and intentional stumbling block, winning only seven seats and capturing 6.3% of the popular vote—their lowest share ever. Leader Jagmeet Singh, who candidly stated that he did not trigger a fall election because he couldn’t “stomach the idea” of the Conservative Leader forming a majority government, lost his Burnaby Central seat and announced his resignation following the party’s loss of official status.
The 2025 federal election has reshaped Canada’s political landscape, setting the stage for a government that must navigate complex domestic and international challenges through strategic collaboration.
Known unknowns—If you come to a fork in the road, take it
We should expect to see some surprise appointments when Mark Carney appoints his new cabinet, his second cabinet in two months. While his cabinet is expected to grow from the current 24 members, it is not expected to surpass 30. Key players like François-Philippe Champagne, Mélanie Joly, and Dominic LeBlanc, all of whom have held critical roles in negotiations with the US, are expected to stay. There will be new faces in the cabinet as well, signalling a deliberate change of course from the Trudeau government. Among newly elected MPs rumoured for Cabinet positions are former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão, former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson, former Delta Chamber of Commerce executive director Jill McKnight, climate change activist Shannon Miedema in Halifax, gun control advocate Nathalie Provost in Quebec, former journalist Evan Solomon and former corporate executive Tim Hodgson, both of whom were elected in Toronto and are said to be close to Carney. Like Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister Carney is committed to having gender parity in Cabinet in addition to ensuring coast-to-coast regional representation.
Another key question is how long Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will remain without a seat in the House of Commons? If a Conservative MP steps down to leave room for Poilievre to run in a byelection, the rules stipulate an MP can only resign once the House of Commons elects a speaker, and that the government can wait up to 180 days before issuing the election writ, with an election campaign that may take up to 50 days. Pierre Poilievre could be without a seat in the House of Commons until early 2026.
This is unlikely, however, as the Conservatives would use every trick in the book to prevent the business of the House from moving forward if they felt that their leader was being excluded through bad faith implementation of the House rules by the government.
More likely is that Poilievre’s status and standing as party leader could be called into question in the next year. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his campaign manager publicly criticized the Tories during the campaign, saying Poilievre has no connections with Conservative premiers or mayors across the country. Tim Houston, Conservative premier of Nova Scotia, is also reported to have a tense relationship with the federal leader. On the night of the election, after the polls closed, Conservative MP Jamil Jivani fueled these tensions during a bitter televised rant, accusing Ford of sabotaging the federal Conservative campaign.
What would a leadership challenge look like? Canadian law requires the Conservative caucus vote in their first meeting on whether they will give themselves the power to trigger a leadership review if 20% of caucus members sign a written notice. If caucus members give themselves this power, they will have a loaded gun in their hands, and it will signal their intent as a body. Preventing the adoption of this power, or securing a promise not to use it if adopted, will be the first caucus management challenge for the opposition leader’s office.
Should the caucus trigger such a review in the months to come, a secret vote must be held on whether to remove the leader, with a majority vote needed for removal. This process was used in 2022 to remove leader Erin O’Toole after losing the 2021 election.
In addition, under the Conservative Party of Canada’s constitution, a leadership review is mandated at the next national convention. One way or another, Pierre Poilievre will be required to assert his control over the party soon after the election.
Perhaps the main “known unknown” is how long this newly elected government will stay in power. On average, Canadian minority governments last less than two years. Justin Trudeau was able to extend his last government beyond that by entering into a supply and confidence agreement with the NDP. Poor polling for both the Liberals and NDP over the last two years gave both parties a strong incentive not to go to the polls. This time around, the NDP should again be in no rush to go to an election, as the party will be focused on electing a new leader and getting out of debt.
Unknown unknowns—The future ain’t what it used to be (or can Carney play the Trump card?)
Before the election, one of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first acts was to declare that the old relationship between Canada and the United States is over. He repeated that foreboding message in his victory speech the night of the election. The relationship between the two countries was grown from the origins of European colonies in North America. Canada’s political independence from the United States was symbolically set in steel with the last spike of the Canadian Pacific Railway in 1885 in an overt assertion of Canada’s economic independence.
And now, Mark Carney is determined to forge a new relationship with the United States in a new economic and security deal.
Everything is at stake for Canada, and the next few years will be a real act of nation-building and forging new relationships.
Carney has secured small wins through early conversations with President Trump, but the true test will be whether or not he can earn Trump’s respect, keep Canadians united, and lay the economic and cultural foundations of an independent Canada in a multi-polar world over the course of his government. The upcoming G7 Leaders’ Summit he will be hosting will provide an early opportunity for Carney to assert himself on the world stage, with Canadians closely watching, looking for the bridge to the future.
Key Dates
- Early May: Appointment of Cabinet (Projected)
- May 2–8: Commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the Liberation of the Netherlands and Victory in Europe (V-E) Day (various locations)
- May 26: House of Commons to Hold First Sitting (Projected)
- May 27: Speech from the Throne (Projected)
- June: Passing of supply bills in Parliament
- June 15–17: G7 Leaders’ Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta
- June 24–25: NATO Summit in The Hague, The Netherlands
- TBC: 2025 Federal Budget
