The next edition of the Ottawa Report is scheduled to be sent Monday, September 30.
Latest News
Launch of a $30 Billion Canada Public Transit Fund
On July 17, the prime minister announced the launch of the Canada Public Transit Fund, a $30 billion investment over 10 years to expand public transit across Canada, to be delivered through three streams:
- Metro-Region Agreements
- Baseline Funding for transit upgrades (with a deadline of September 30)
- Targeted Funding for key priorities
With Trudeau short on supply, NDP finds their confidence
End of the Liberal-NDP Deal
To start September, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced that the NDP was pulling out of the supply and confidence agreement between his party and the Liberals. First signed in March 2022, this agreement has kept the Liberal government in power by implementing key policy priorities of the NDP, including dental care benefits for Canadians, rental supplements for low-income Canadians, and a temporary doubling of the GST rebate.
The agreement has been strained by several situations that made the decision to end the agreement easier and more urgent for the NDP:
- The slowness of the government to implement universal pharmacare, a key priority for the NDP.
- The Conservative Party of Canada’s campaign to steal the labour vote and embarrass the NDP into ending the agreement, particularly with an upcoming by-election on September 16 in Winnipeg that the NDP is looking to hold.
- The Liberal government’s recent decision to end the CN Rail strike through binding arbitration.
To maintain its position with its own voters, a position that has been weakening, the NDP had little choice but to end the agreement.
Timing of Next Election
With the end of the agreement, the government could fall at any time on a confidence vote, but there are three points that the government could use to provoke an election on its own terms: the Fall Economic Statement 2024, Spring Budget 2025, or the legally mandated end of the parliament, fall of 2025.
We know the NDP will not want to wait until the end of the current Parliament for an election because they will lose the chance to set themselves apart from the Liberal government that they have supported up to now by voting against them.
The most likely target for an election scenario will be Budget 2025. This will allow the Liberals time to develop a platform that they can run on and choose the exact points of division that will cause the NDP to bring them down. They will have some more time to fundraise and get in the end-of-year fundraising cycle.
This could be complicated by an Ontario election, which may happen in the spring as Premier Doug Ford tries to time his election before the federal election. His window may be closing more quickly than he anticipated.
On the horizon, we must also consider that Canada is set to be the host of the G7 in May or June of 2025. No doubt Prime Minister Trudeau is eager to use such a showcase to prop up his chances in the next election.
By-Election Blow to Liberals
Despite the dropping inflation rate hitting its 2 percent target in August, change was still in the air as voters saw fit to continue punishing the Trudeau Liberals in by-elections on September 16 in Elmwood—Transcona (Winnipeg) and Lasalle-Émard-Verdun (Montreal). Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greeted scrums the next day looking wearier than he has ever been in his almost nine years as prime minister. His blame of voters for “not understanding what is at stake” leaves him sounding even more isolated from both the electorate and quite possibly his caucus.
It was a good night for the NDP. They had strong local candidates in both ridings and likely benefitted from a resurgent provincial party in Manitoba. Jagmeet Singh can sigh with relief that his party has not been painted with Trudeau’s brush. While the NDP finished third in Montreal, it was a tight three-way race with the Bloc and Liberals that can be seen as a strong showing for them. This should get the caucus off his back and put further distance from the supply-and-confidence agreement.
As for the Liberals, they may regret not having open nominations in the two held ridings in Toronto and Montreal that they have now lost this year. The extra engagement those bring may have been enough to put them over the edge in both cases. Their dismal numbers in the Winnipeg by-election were a boost to the NDP to hold the riding. Unless things change, with two more Liberal-held ridings set for by-elections (Cloverdale—Langley City in BC to be called no later than Nov. 30 and Halifax in Nova Scotia no later than March 2), the Liberals seem set to lose those as well to the Conservatives and NDP respectively. The loss—in which we still have not seen the floor for the Liberal vote—will prompt additional reflection among caucus about who will run again.
It was not a good night for the Conservatives, who should have taken the Winnipeg riding but didn’t. They held it in 2011 and almost kept it in 2015, but even their sky-high poll numbers right now didn’t get it back. The by-elections were still a good showing for centre and left parties, despite the Liberal losses. We are starting to see some of the geographic and demographic limits of Pierre Poilievre’s appeal. Fourth place in Montreal was not a good look for the Conservatives, who are seeking to make gains in Quebec. It may be testament to Poilievre’s poll numbers being in good part “anti-Trudeau” numbers. When another good option is available, people are still willing to try them out. The one positive sign is that Poilievre’s efforts to court the PPC voters seems to be working, with the PPC going from almost 6 percent in Winnipeg in 2021 to only just over 1 percent in the by-election.
As for the Bloc, they must decide if Poilievre’s form of decentralized federalism is attractive enough to them to want to trigger an election. They had a successful night by picking up the Montreal seat. However, we don’t think this reflects a story about the Bloc itself, but rather the slow and painful decline of Trudeau (whose face was deliberately absent from campaign posters in the riding). The Bloc adroitly positioned themselves as a safe haven for disaffected voters in the riding, and this might still prove to be an effective strategy in the general election if none of the major national parties find an effective way to connect with francophone voters. For next steps, the Bloc have stated this week that they would not support a confidence vote to bring down the government that is purely based on the carbon tax.
Ultimately, a snap election still means a Conservative government—possibly a majority with current polls. The Bloc and the NDP have more to gain holding the balance of power in the Liberal minority government than either would have in a Conservative majority. They both can keep exacting case-by-case wins from the Liberals and benefit from year-end fundraising before we see an election next year.
Minor Cabinet Shake-Up
After Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez’s announcement of his resignation from cabinet on Thursday, September 19 to run for the leadership of provincial Quebec Liberty Party, the prime minister tapped Treasury Board President Anita Anand to take on the additional duties as Canada’s minister of transport.
Ministers Launch Website Highlighting Progress on Municipal Wastewater Management Strategy
In July, the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME), a multijurisdictional body comprising federal, provincial, and territorial environment ministers, met in St. John’s, Newfoundland. Following the meeting, the CCME issued a news release highlighting key outcomes. Notably, the ministers launched an updated website to provide Canadians with information on the progress of the Canada-wide Strategy on the Management of Municipal Wastewater Effluent. The strategy addresses the largest source of pollution to Canada’s surface waters by volume and emphasizes a commitment to protecting human health and the environment, while also offering regulatory clarity in managing municipal wastewater effluent.
Parliamentary Business
Fall Session of Parliament Begins
The fall session of Parliament resumed on Monday, September 16, with parliamentarians sitting each week until Thanksgiving. With the clock ticking on this Parliament, this fall is a key time for the government to see legislation through, which will be highlighted by the upcoming Fall Economic Statement, whose date is still to be determined.
Federal Funding Awarded
$430 million for Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund since 2021
On September 16, the Department of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities reported that about $430 million has been provided to provinces and territories across Canada since January 1, 2021 from the Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund.
$76 Million from Zero Emission Transit Fund to York Region
Announced in July, the prime minister, along with the chairman and Chief Executive Office of the York Region revealed a federal investment of $76 million to build electric bus fleet. Through this, the municipality will be getting 180 zero-emission buses, 91 battery electric chargers, and 14 on-route chargers. In addition to the federal investment, this project is supported by a $136 million loan announced last year by the Canada Infrastructure Bank. This project is also supported by an investment of $177 million from the Regional Municipality of York.
$283.5 Million Loan to Construct Electricity Transmission Line in Alberta
The Canada Infrastructure Bank’s (CIB) is investing $283.5 million to Alberta electricity transmission line companies, AltaLink, L.P (AltaLink) and ATCO Electric Ltd. (ATCO) with financing to construct a new transmission line in the counties of Red Deer, Lacombe, and Stettler. This investment will help advance a new, 130-kilometre high-voltage power line and is expected to save Alberta ratepayers approximately $135 million over the 30-year financing of the project.
$9 Million to the NWT under the Canada Community-Building Fund
Following the recent renewal of the Canada Community-Building Fund (CCBF) agreement between the Northwest Territories and the federal government to support core infrastructure projects, the latter announced on September 19 that $9 million will be provided through the CCBF as the first payment for the 2024¬–2025 fiscal year. This agreement runs from 2024–2034, and under it, Northwest Territories will receive $94.5 million over the next five years, including $18 million this fiscal year.
$6 Million to Rebuild the Kashwakamak Dam in Ontario
On September 18, the Department of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities announced a joint investment of about $6 million from the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority and the federal government’s Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund to replace the original dam. The federal government is investing $2,263,000 in this project through the Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund (DMAF), while the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority is contributing $3,707,000.
$30 Million Investment in Ontario through the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program
On September 12, the federal government announced an investment totalling $30,110,927 through the Public Transit Infrastructure Stream of the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program to support 18 public transit infrastructure projects across the municipalities of Cornwall, Kingston, Peterborough, and Trent Hills. The three municipalities are contributing a combined $28,543,027, while the Government of Ontario is contributing $25,131,436. This stream supports the building, expansion, and upgrading of urban and rural transit networks.
